Democrat Hillary Clinton increased her lead among likely voters in Pennsylvania after the first presidential debate, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College Poll.
Clinton led Republican nominee Donald Trump by nine percentage points, 47 percent to 38 percent, among registered voters who said they were sure they would vote Nov. 8, the poll released Tuesday showed. Her lead was wider among registered voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
At the end of September, by comparison, the Real Clear Politics average of public polls showed Clinton leading by just under two percentage points among likely voters.
"The big takeaway is pretty simple: Donald Trump has had the worst week of his campaign," pollster G. Terry Madonna said.
By most independent accounts, Trump flailed in the Sept. 26 debate against a better-prepared Clinton.
In the days that followed, the real estate developer continued attacking a former Miss Universe, Alicia Machado, whom he had called "Miss Piggy" two decades ago, when she gained weight after winning the pageant, which Trump owned at the time. Clinton brought up Machado in the debate to criticize Trump's treatment of women.
He also ratcheted up his rhetoric at his rallies after weeks of calmer presentations. Then, the New York Times reported that Trump declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 tax return, which may have allowed him to avoid paying federal income taxes for up to 18 years.
Forty-seven percent of Pennsylvania registered voters viewed Clinton favorably in Tuesday's poll, to 50 percent who viewed her unfavorably, for a net negative rating of three percentage points. Trump was viewed favorably by 32 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 60 percent, giving him a net negative rating of 28 percentage points.
Clinton's image among voters has improved since a similar Franklin and Marshall poll in August, while Trump's has declined.
Tuesday's poll found Democrat Katie McGinty with a six-point lead over Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, 41 percent to 35 percent, among likely voters, although 22 percent are undecided.
Madonna said he attributed Clinton's September swoon to continued revelations about her use of private email as secretary of state and reports about political favoritism by the Clinton Foundation, run by her daughter, Chelsea, and husband, former President Bill Clinton, as well as mishandling of the disclosure of her pneumonia.
The broad demographic underpinnings of the Trump-Clinton race are familiar, according to the poll.
Trump leads among whites with no college degree, 46 percent to 39 percent, as he has throughout the race, but Clinton has the advantage among college-educated white voters, 54 percent to 32 percent.
Trump is leading in southwest and northwest Pennsylvania and rural counties in the center of the state, but Clinton is crushing him in the four Philadelphia suburban counties, 59 percent to 33 percent.
In Philadelphia, Clinton leads by 67 percent to 22 percent.
The poll included the two minor party candidates.
The suburbs are home to the largest pools of swing voters and college-educated voters in the state and cast about a quarter of the votes in the presidential election of 2012.
"You can't afford to get wiped out there and win the state," Madonna said.
The survey queried 813 registered voters from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. For the 496 likely voters among those interviewed, the sample error was plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.
The poll showed that Clinton is supported by large majorities of African Americans and voters under age 35 - though not by the percentages Obama drew, Madonna said.
"There's still a certain amount of volatility," he said.
tfitzgerald@phillynews.com
215-854-2718 @tomfitzgerald
www.inquirer.com/bigtent
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